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 FLORIDA ST (7 - 4) vs. VIRGINIA TECH (10 - 1) Week 14 Saturday, 12/3/2005 8:00 PM ACC Championship - AllTel Stadium - Jacksonville, FL  vs  Analysis Banged up Florida State (7-4) comes into this one on a big slump, going 0-3 SU/ATS the last three games, and 0-4 ATS the last 4. They got overpowered Saturday in a third consecutive loss, a 34-7 beating by rival Florida. "We are beat up and tired physically," said Bobby Bowden. "We won't be able to do a lot of hitting in practice." The defense is still reeling from a lot of late-season injuries, and freshman QB Drew Weatherford (16 TDs, 17 INTs) has thrown 3 TDs and 9 picks the last four games! FSU's last three games: losses to North Carolina State, Clemson and Florida. The Seminoles were outscored 89-36 in those contests! FSU's ace DE Kamerion Wimbley said he is optimistic that he'll be able to play in the ACC championship game, which is some good news for the Seminoles. Florida State does have a good run defense (3 ypc). Many people fault the FSU offense, but the number tell a different story as Florida State ranks first in the ACC in total offense (394.5 yards per game) and passing offense (290.1), but has struggled running the football and protecting QB Drew Weatherford. Meanwhile, Virginia Tech (10-1 SU, 9-2 ATS) averages 204 yards rushing and 176 passing per game behind QB Marcus Vick and tailback Cedric Humes. Last week, they struggled early against North Carolina, but opened it up in the second half and cruised to a 30-3 victory. The defense is solid, allowing just 3.90 yards per carry and 3.97 yards per pass play. Was anybody else absolutely blown away when this line came out? A proud Florida State team, essentially playing a home game in Jacksonville, with still a shot at the ACC BCS bowl birth a 14 point dog. Even more astonishing is that the public has bet the line up to 14.5 and 15 in some shops. So you ask...what’s so mind blowing about this line? Well for starters Virginia Tech has NEVER beaten Florida State or its coach. Indeed, VT HC Beamer is 0-6 SU versus Bobby Bowden, and Florida State is 11-0 SU versus Virginia Tech under head coach Bobby Bowden. The two most recent games against these teams were the 2000 Sugar Bowl in which Tech out rushed FSU by 248 yards and lost by 17 and the 2002 Gator Bowl, which was another DD loss. To make matters worse is the fact that the Hokies are just 2-7 ATS as favorites of 8 points or more away from Blacksburg. Motivationally, if the Seminoles lose their fourth game in a row, they would probably play in the Dec. 27 Champs Sports Bowl in Orlando against Kansas or Nebraska. If Florida State defeats Virginia Tech it will receive an automatic BCS bowl bid, and will likely be headed to the Orange Bowl. But since both teams are playing for the BCS birth the motivation/situational intangibles equal out. However, FSU players have some additional motivation as they are seeking to avoid their first four-game losing streak in the Bobby Bowden era! The last time the Seminoles lost four in a row was in 1975, the year before Bowden took over! Fundamentally, Virginia Tech is primarily a running team, which plays into FSU’s strength so look for Florida State's defense can keep them in this one. I anticipate 50+ rushing attempts for the Vols which will certainly make this a short low scoring game that will probably go under the total. Thats not conducive to laying big points...so we are going to side with the dog. Forecast: Virginia Tech 21, Florida St 24 PLAY 2* UNITS ON FLORIDA STATE +14.5 |
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